Risk Happens

14 Oct 2011 - 05:21 AM under Books, Risk | Posted by PMStudent

Guest post by Mike Clayton

Why Every Project Manager needs to Understand Risk

Project management is a discipline born from necessity.? If projects were not so challenging, we wouldn?t need a separate toolkit and processes.? But we do need them, because when we try to create change under constraints like schedule, performance and budget, we face the unknown.

Your response as a project manager is to define and plan your project with care, gathering all available data and then applying your experience, expertise and reasoning to generate a plan.

Planning Fallacy

Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky described ?planning fallacy? as the consistent belief that you can deliver to a schedule ? even when you have a track record of over-runs.? Believing your plan is an error almost as serious as failing to make one in the first place.

?Plans are worthless, but planning is everything?
President Eisenhower

Shift happens! Things go wrong.? The universe is no respecter of your plans.

Risk Management


So a second discipline ? deeply intertwined with project management ? is born of the same necessity: Risk Management.? A risk can be defined as:

?uncertainty that can affect outcomes?

Notice how this definition contains the two principal components of risk: uncertainty, which is measured by likelihood, and impact, which can be measured in many ways: financial, schedule, reputational, or the level of disruption to your project, for example.? Uncertainty arises for many reasons.? Here are seven of the most common:

  1. Projects are one-off endeavours, creating new products, services, assets or processes.? There is no specific history or experience to call upon when you are planning.
  2. Planning assumptions can be flawed due to lack of information or data, or incorrect information or data, or faulty interpretation of the information or data you have.
  3. You may miss something important in your planning, which you either failed to identify, identified but missed the significance, or could never reasonably have known it.
  4. Someone intervenes in an unexpected manner ? unexpected because either your analysis of your stakeholders missed what should have been predictable, or because sometimes people act in an unpredictable manner.
  5. A genuinely unexpected ? possibly even unforeseeable ? event occurs.? If it was really unforeseeable, it is often referred to as a ?black swan? event.
  6. A predictable event occurs, but its predictability extends to insufficient precision, rendering planning impossible.? Extreme weather and natural events are in this category: we know earthquakes happen in certain places, but cannot yet anticipate precisely where and when, and to what extent.
  7. Plain old human error ? someone makes a mistake.

For all of these reasons, Project Management students need to make a careful study of risk management, and learn to feel comfortable with uncertainty.? You need to be able to identify, analyse and plan for risk.

This is why I wrote ?Risk Happens! Managing Risk and Avoiding Failure in Business Projects?.? It is written with new and less experienced project managers in mind, but I believe that there is plenty of material that experienced professionals will find useful and thought-provoking.? You can find out more at http://riskhappens.co.uk.

Win a Copy of Risk Happens!

My particular focus in training project managers has always been on practical tools and techniques.? I have carried this attitude into Risk Happens!? I am interested in what you think are the best ? and most innovative ? risk management tools and techniques.? Contribute your ideas at the end of the post and Josh and I will award the best response with a complimentary copy of Risk Happens!

You have until October 31, 2011 to win so leave a comment now!

LIKE & SHARE THIS ARTICLE

50 thoughts on “Risk Happens

  1. mukena katun jepang murah

    I feel this is one of the most significant info for me.
    And i am glad reading your article. However wanna commentary on some common things, The website
    style is great, the articles is truly nice : D.
    Good process, cheers

    Reply
  2. Toby Bryan

    I do agree with all of the concepts you’ve introducewd for
    your post. They’re very convincing and can certainly work.

    Nonetheless, the posts are very short for novices. May just you
    please prolong them a little from subsequent time?

    Thanks for the post.

    Reply
  3. Eliana Renault

    Hello, i think that i saw you visited my site thus i came to “return the favor”.I am attempting to find things to improve my site!I suppose its ok to use some of your ideas!!

    Reply
  4. Reid Rawicki

    I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here. The sketch is attractive, your authored material stylish. nonetheless, you command get got an edginess over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come further formerly again as exactly the same nearly a lot often inside case you shield this increase.

    Reply
  5. Kenia Dochterman

    In the event you come across an image you would like to conserve while you are searching, simply touch it and keep it. It can save you the picture in your mobile phone. You may also choose to replicate the particular picture right into a message.

    Reply
  6. Ryan Stapp

    magnificent issues altogether, you just gained a new reader. What would you suggest about your submit that you just made a few days in the past? Any positive?

    Reply
  7. Pingback: Music

  8. Odszkodowania po wypadku

    A person essentially assist to make significantly posts I’d state. This is the very first time I frequented your website page and thus far? I surprised with the analysis you made to create this actual publish extraordinary. Excellent job!

    Reply
  9. Pingback: Bail bonds company lewiston idaho

  10. Shala Tarpey

    Hello, i think that i noticed you visited my web site thus i came to “return the favor”.I am attempting to in finding things to enhance my website!I guess its ok to make use of some of your ideas!!

    Reply
  11. Liz Lessen

    This is really interesting, You are a very skilled blogger. I’ve joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your great post. Also, I have shared your web site in my social networks!

    Reply
  12. Darrick Mileski

    Good – I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your site. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs and related info ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it at all. Quite unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, site theme . a tones way for your client to communicate. Nice task.

    Reply
  13. Ebonie Patricia

    I’m not sure exactly why but this web site is loading very slow for me. Is anyone else having this issue or is it a issue on my end? I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.

    Reply
  14. Nakesha Dimopoulos

    I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here. The sketch is attractive, your authored material stylish. nonetheless, you command get got an shakiness over that you wish be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly a lot often inside case you shield this increase.

    Reply
  15. Zack Fritzpatrick

    Oh my goodness! Amazing article dude! Thanks, However I am going through troubles with your RSS. I don’t know the reason why I can’t join it. Is there anyone else having identical RSS issues? Anybody who knows the solution can you kindly respond? Thanks!!

    Reply
  16. Tequila Denapoli

    hello there and thank you for your info – I’ve definitely picked up anything new from right here. I did however expertise some technical issues using this web site, as I experienced to reload the website many times previous to I could get it to load correctly. I had been wondering if your hosting is OK? Not that I’m complaining, but slow loading instances times will very frequently affect your placement in google and can damage your high quality score if ads and marketing with Adwords. Anyway I am adding this RSS to my email and can look out for much more of your respective intriguing content. Make sure you update this again soon..

    Reply
  17. Charolette Vaccarezza

    My spouse and i ended up being quite fortunate that Albert could deal with his basic research using the ideas he obtained while using the weblog. It’s not at all simplistic to simply possibly be giving freely helpful hints that some other people might have been selling. We already know we have the blog owner to thank for that. All the explanations you have made, the straightforward web site menu, the friendships your site help to promote – it’s got everything superb, and it is leading our son and our family feel that this subject matter is enjoyable, which is certainly especially fundamental. Many thanks for everything!

    Reply
  18. Keneth Mahn

    Simply want to say your article is as astounding. The clearness in your post is simply cool and i could assume you’re an expert on this subject. Well with your permission let me to grab your RSS feed to keep up to date with forthcoming post. Thanks a million and please carry on the gratifying work.

    Reply
  19. Pingback: HVAC Parts

  20. cal king mattress

    Wow! This can be one particular of the most useful blogs We’ve ever arrive across on this subject. Actually Excellent. I’m also an expert in this topic therefore I can understand your hard work.

    Reply
  21. Slyvia Buntjer

    I think this is among the most significant information for me. And i am glad reading your article. But want to remark on few general things, The site style is ideal, the articles is really great : D. Good job, cheers

    Reply
  22. Mike Janski

    Wonderful work! That is the kind of info that should be shared across the net. Shame on the seek engines for no longer positioning this post upper! Come on over and talk over with my web site . Thanks =)

    Reply
  23. Pablo Claro

    Having read this I thought it was rather informative. I appreciate you taking the time and energy to put this content together. I once again find myself personally spending a lot of time both reading and leaving comments. But so what, it was still worth it!

    Reply
  24. Bud Telep

    I will right away grab your rss feed as I can’t find your e-mail subscription link or e-newsletter service. Do you have any? Kindly let me know in order that I could subscribe. Thanks.

    Reply
  25. Charlie Guittar

    We are a group of volunteers and starting a new scheme in our community. Your web site offered us with valuable info to work on. You’ve done a formidable job and our entire community will be thankful to you.

    Reply
  26. Merlin Sotos

    When I initially commented I clicked the -Notify me when new feedback are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get 4 emails with the identical comment. Is there any way you possibly can remove me from that service? Thanks!

    Reply
  27. Salvatore Mcconahay

    You actually make it seem so easy with your presentation but I find this matter to be actually something which I think I would never understand. It seems too complicated and very broad for me. I am looking forward for your next post, I will try to get the hang of it!

    Reply
  28. Wenona Mischel

    May I just say what a relief to discover someone that actually understands what they’re discussing on the internet. You definitely understand how to bring a problem to light and make it important. More and more people should look at this and understand this side of your story. I was surprised that you are not more popular since you certainly possess the gift.

    Reply
  29. Pingback: Venus Factor

  30. Pingback: Flatbed Trucking Jobs

  31. Kacie Vandeberg

    I have been exploring for a little bit for any high quality articles or blog posts in this sort of area . Exploring in Yahoo I ultimately stumbled upon this web site. Reading this info So i’m happy to convey that I’ve a very just right uncanny feeling I came upon exactly what I needed. I such a lot for sure will make certain to do not disregard this site and give it a look regularly.

    Reply
  32. Catrice Tashman

    Hi there, just became alert to your blog through Google, and found that it’s truly informative. I am gonna watch out for brussels. I’ll be grateful if you continue this in future. Numerous people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

    Reply
  33. Rosemary Sulikowski

    Good day! I could have sworn I’ve visited your blog before but after looking at some of the posts I realized it’s new to me. Regardless, I’m definitely happy I discovered it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back frequently!

    Reply
  34. check here

    I just want to mention I am just very new to blogs and definitely savored your website. Very likely I’m likely to bookmark your blog . You really come with wonderful articles and reviews. With thanks for revealing your website page.

    Reply
  35. dafabet

    Hi there! I simply would like to give an enormous thumbs up for the great information you may have here on this post. I shall be coming again to your weblog for more soon.

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *