Comments on: Estimating Effort: Part 3 http://pmstudent.com/estimating-effort-part-3/ Helping new and aspiring project managers reach their career goals! Wed, 08 Feb 2012 14:16:34 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Project Estimation Methods http://pmstudent.com/estimating-effort-part-3/#comment-26674 Project Estimation Methods Sun, 14 Nov 2010 18:48:31 +0000 http://pmstudent.com/?p=1461#comment-26674 [...] Estimating Effort: Part 3 [...] [...] Estimating Effort: Part 3 [...]

]]> By: KW Variant 3 http://pmstudent.com/estimating-effort-part-3/#comment-26217 KW Variant 3 Sun, 10 Oct 2010 08:54:00 +0000 http://pmstudent.com/?p=1461#comment-26217 Firstly you will need to check the Fork and Shock sag: this is the amount the forks and rear shock settle under load. To measure it do the following: push down on the forks a number of times to settle them, then mark the stanchion with a felt pen or put a cable tie where the dust seal is sitting. Next ask some for help to lift on the bars so the front wheel is just off the ground and measure the amount the forks have traveled down. This is the static sag (or unladen sag), This can be changed by adjusting the spring preload (more preload = less sag). Repeat the same process for the rear, this time measuring the distance from the wheel spindle to a fixed point on the tail. Now you are ready to begin setting up your suspension. The key is to do it a little at a time and make notes as you go. For road riding start with the wet track settings and work from there. Firstly you will need to check the Fork and Shock sag: this is the amount the forks and rear shock settle under load. To measure it do the following: push down on the forks a number of times to settle them, then mark the stanchion with a felt pen or put a cable tie where the dust seal is sitting. Next ask some for help to lift on the bars so the front wheel is just off the ground and measure the amount the forks have traveled down. This is the static sag (or unladen sag), This can be changed by adjusting the spring preload (more preload = less sag). Repeat the same process for the rear, this time measuring the distance from the wheel spindle to a fixed point on the tail. Now you are ready to begin setting up your suspension. The key is to do it a little at a time and make notes as you go. For road riding start with the wet track settings and work from there.

]]> By: Glen B. Alleman http://pmstudent.com/estimating-effort-part-3/#comment-4984 Glen B. Alleman Thu, 08 Jan 2009 17:03:52 +0000 http://pmstudent.com/?p=1461#comment-4984 Bill, Matahematically the triangle is best suited in the absensce of underlying information. It possess the least cummulant divergence for forecasting likley values drawn by a random number generator. You do not want the numbers to be correlated when produces them for modeling. If the population statistics are known - cummulatants known - than other distributions can be used. The paper at the SPE confernce concludes the order of asking the high, low and most likley has statistically signifcant differences. These estimates are made by subject matter experts - like the effort or duration should be. Also, in our A&D work we ask for the duration of the workpackage and its work elements first, from the subject mater experts. Then we ask for the labor loading needed. This we we get a bounded end to end duration early in the Basis of Estimate process, that can be founded on previous work and define the pre-conditions for holding that schedule. The trouble with IT is they never seem to have any credible estimates of duration or effort, since the development of software is Ad Hoc process with little or no modeling from past performance. Even "new" development in A&D has parameteric modeling. Trying to introduce that into corporate IT is a bust, they simply don't have the understanding of why or how this is a benefit. I blame this entirely on the agile community. For embedded SW and ground system in defense, a customer would NEVER take an estimate that did not have some kind of parametric modeling. SEER, Price-S, and COCOMO models are mandated. I'll locate the paper in the archive and send it. Bill,
Matahematically the triangle is best suited in the absensce of underlying information. It possess the least cummulant divergence for forecasting likley values drawn by a random number generator. You do not want the numbers to be correlated when produces them for modeling.
If the population statistics are known – cummulatants known – than other distributions can be used.
The paper at the SPE confernce concludes the order of asking the high, low and most likley has statistically signifcant differences. These estimates are made by subject matter experts – like the effort or duration should be.

Also, in our A&D work we ask for the duration of the workpackage and its work elements first, from the subject mater experts. Then we ask for the labor loading needed. This we we get a bounded end to end duration early in the Basis of Estimate process, that can be founded on previous work and define the pre-conditions for holding that schedule. The trouble with IT is they never seem to have any credible estimates of duration or effort, since the development of software is Ad Hoc process with little or no modeling from past performance. Even “new” development in A&D has parameteric modeling. Trying to introduce that into corporate IT is a bust, they simply don’t have the understanding of why or how this is a benefit. I blame this entirely on the agile community.
For embedded SW and ground system in defense, a customer would NEVER take an estimate that did not have some kind of parametric modeling. SEER, Price-S, and COCOMO models are mandated.

I’ll locate the paper in the archive and send it.

]]> By: Glen B. Alleman http://pmstudent.com/estimating-effort-part-3/#comment-24648 Glen B. Alleman Thu, 08 Jan 2009 17:03:00 +0000 http://pmstudent.com/?p=1461#comment-24648 Bill, Matahematically the triangle is best suited in the absensce of underlying information. It possess the least cummulant divergence for forecasting likley values drawn by a random number generator. You do not want the numbers to be correlated when produces them for modeling. If the population statistics are known - cummulatants known - than other distributions can be used. The paper at the SPE confernce concludes the order of asking the high, low and most likley has statistically signifcant differences. These estimates are made by subject matter experts - like the effort or duration should be. Also, in our A&D work we ask for the duration of the workpackage and its work elements first, from the subject mater experts. Then we ask for the labor loading needed. This we we get a bounded end to end duration early in the Basis of Estimate process, that can be founded on previous work and define the pre-conditions for holding that schedule. The trouble with IT is they never seem to have any credible estimates of duration or effort, since the development of software is Ad Hoc process with little or no modeling from past performance. Even "new" development in A&D has parameteric modeling. Trying to introduce that into corporate IT is a bust, they simply don't have the understanding of why or how this is a benefit. I blame this entirely on the agile community. For embedded SW and ground system in defense, a customer would NEVER take an estimate that did not have some kind of parametric modeling. SEER, Price-S, and COCOMO models are mandated. I'll locate the paper in the archive and send it. Bill,
Matahematically the triangle is best suited in the absensce of underlying information. It possess the least cummulant divergence for forecasting likley values drawn by a random number generator. You do not want the numbers to be correlated when produces them for modeling.
If the population statistics are known – cummulatants known – than other distributions can be used.
The paper at the SPE confernce concludes the order of asking the high, low and most likley has statistically signifcant differences. These estimates are made by subject matter experts – like the effort or duration should be.

Also, in our A&D work we ask for the duration of the workpackage and its work elements first, from the subject mater experts. Then we ask for the labor loading needed. This we we get a bounded end to end duration early in the Basis of Estimate process, that can be founded on previous work and define the pre-conditions for holding that schedule. The trouble with IT is they never seem to have any credible estimates of duration or effort, since the development of software is Ad Hoc process with little or no modeling from past performance. Even “new” development in A&D has parameteric modeling. Trying to introduce that into corporate IT is a bust, they simply don’t have the understanding of why or how this is a benefit. I blame this entirely on the agile community.
For embedded SW and ground system in defense, a customer would NEVER take an estimate that did not have some kind of parametric modeling. SEER, Price-S, and COCOMO models are mandated.

I’ll locate the paper in the archive and send it.

]]> By: Bill Duncan http://pmstudent.com/estimating-effort-part-3/#comment-4980 Bill Duncan Thu, 08 Jan 2009 12:48:24 +0000 http://pmstudent.com/?p=1461#comment-4980 Glen -- Thanks for the references. I will try to track them down. I found the Navy experiment interesting, and the results in contrast to some work done at the Texas Department of Prisons where they found that a triangular distribution was the most accurate representation of costs for their projects. In the next article, I'll deal with some of the issues you raise. And I love your example of Cody and Bermuda! Duncan Glen –

Thanks for the references. I will try to track them down. I found the Navy experiment interesting, and the results in contrast to some work done at the Texas Department of Prisons where they found that a triangular distribution was the most accurate representation of costs for their projects.

In the next article, I’ll deal with some of the issues you raise.

And I love your example of Cody and Bermuda!

Duncan

]]> By: Bill Duncan http://pmstudent.com/estimating-effort-part-3/#comment-24647 Bill Duncan Thu, 08 Jan 2009 12:48:00 +0000 http://pmstudent.com/?p=1461#comment-24647 Glen -- Thanks for the references. I will try to track them down. I found the Navy experiment interesting, and the results in contrast to some work done at the Texas Department of Prisons where they found that a triangular distribution was the most accurate representation of costs for their projects. In the next article, I'll deal with some of the issues you raise. And I love your example of Cody and Bermuda! Duncan Glen –

Thanks for the references. I will try to track them down. I found the Navy experiment interesting, and the results in contrast to some work done at the Texas Department of Prisons where they found that a triangular distribution was the most accurate representation of costs for their projects.

In the next article, I’ll deal with some of the issues you raise.

And I love your example of Cody and Bermuda!

Duncan

]]>