by Josh
confidence - by badzmanaois via Flickr
So far in this series we have 3 attributes of project management that can be used as means to judge any given implementation of it.
- Delivering Value
- Consistency
- Alignment
For this installment, let’s talk about confidence. This is somewhat related to consistency so let me get the definitions clear. Consistency speaks to repeatability, or the capacity to be successful again and again….a systemic enabling of success.
When I speak of confidence in this context, I’m referring to the dependability of various things like estimates being reasonably accurate, deliveries being made at the promised time, and keeping your promises in general.
In general I think this is an attribute which many project environments struggle with. Estimates get inflated and then cut back arbitrarily; project managers don’t push back when they know a commitment is unreasonable; risk management is done poorly or not at all and thus many preventable train wrecks are driven straight into by blind drivers at the wheel.
What examples can you share that demonstrate good and bad confidence on the projects you’ve worked?
[Note: Due to some excellent comments from Glen Alleman, I've changed this attribute from reliability to confidence, which I think captures what I was going after much better. Thanks Glen!]
Don't Screw This Up
8 Comments
Josh Nankivel November 20 2009 15:09 pm
Yes, I think confidence would have worked just as well, probably better. You spoke to this a little while ago Glen, I think it was a part of one of the points you made...
Glen B. AllemanNovember 20, 2009 6:19 pm
Josh,
The notion of confidence can be applied to cost, schedule and technical performance. The units of measures can be in percentage variation,absolute values and any scalar quantity.
It changes the conversation from scalar to statistical and forces words like “on or before,” “this value or less,” etc.
Travis AndersonNovember 22, 2009 7:45 pm
Josh,
As a controller and contractor to the federal government, I rely on my engineers to develop well thought estimates. We use a basis of estimate (BOE) template and Contractor Work Breakdown Structure Dictionary to capture the delineation of the contractual scope. The BOE is simply the calculation of the basis that provides a rationale for the estimate. As a standard, we include a confidence metric among other estimate factors within our basis formula computation.
These artifacts go through configuration review and approval. This ensures a higher level of confidence in our estimates prior to the time-phasing of resources in the resource loaded network (RLN).
Glen B. AllemanNovember 23, 2009 4:37 pm
Travis,
Add to that the DID 81650 requirements for Schedule Risk Analysis and the associated cost for the Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB)
http://www.slideshare.net/galleman/how-to-build-a-credible-performance-measurement-baseline-2426274
With the PMB the statistical processes can be applied for cost and the technical performance measures as well. The cost element relationships (CER) are then used to drive the Monte Marlo model to enhance the credibility of the PMB.
But here’s the killer problem. Unless the leadership and the processes are in place for this kind of stuff, the result is basically crap and them every chimes in to say how this is too hard, has never worked, can’t be done, and every other excuse.
In the end of course it IS done everyday on major programs and acquisitions around the world.
Travis Anderson November 27 2009 11:09 am
Glen,
Thanks for the PMB URL. The presentation represented the truth behind developing a credible PMB. You are right, leadership and processes absolutely contribute to the credibility of a PMB. I spend a lot of time with my CAMs to help them understand the systemics so that we can increase the credibility of the PMB. The important thing is for the leadership and the customers to have a high tolerance for mistakes and a commitment (budget) for continuously improving the processes represented through the eight steps described in the presentation.
Nice work. Thanks for sharing.
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Glen B. AllemanNovember 20, 2009 2:59 pm
Josh,
So could I use the word “confidence” in place of reliable?